000ABNT20 KNHC 201739TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.&&Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.$$Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062026)
  ...FAY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS... As of 9:00 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 the center of Fay was located near 34.4, -32.7 with movement NNE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Fay

• Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 6
  Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 000 WTNT31 KNHC 202034 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 ...FAY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 32.7W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 32.7 West. Fay is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) this general motion is expected to continue through the rest of the day. Afterwards a turn to the southwest is expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight, and Fay could approach hurricane intensity. A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch]]>
• Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 6
  Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 000 WTNT21 KNHC 202033 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 32.7W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 32.7W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 32.8W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.3N 32.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.6N 32.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.5N 33.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.4N 35.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 29.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 32.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH]]>
• Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 6
  Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 202035 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 A few more convective bursts have occurred near the center of Fay in the last couple of hours as seen in the visible satellite imagery. Infrared satellite imagery indicates that some of the cloud tops have cooled to near -70 degrees C with the latest batch of convection. The current objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 45-51 kt, and the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was a T3.5/55 kt. Based on the given data, the initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt, on the upper end of the satellite estimates. The environment that Fay is located in still has moisture for additional convective development and an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should allow for Fay to further intensify for about 12 hours or so. Once the trough lifts on Monday, wind shear should increase and dry air should find its way into the cyclone. This will lead to a gradual weakening of Fay. The current NHC intensity forecast calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday and then dissipate near the end of the week. The intensity forecast is still a little higher than the model guidance in the short term as Fay's structure is over performing expectations due to the expected baroclinic support from the trough. It is still possible that Fay could reach hurricane strength sometime tonight. Fay is still moving slowly and off toward the north-northeast, with the initial motion estimated around 020/5 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for about 12 hours or. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north by Monday. This ridge in turn will force Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC forecast track is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI track aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 34.4N 32.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 34.3N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 33.6N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 32.5N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 31.4N 35.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z 29.0N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch]]>
• Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
  Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 000 FONT11 KNHC 202034 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH]]>
• Tropical Storm Fay Graphics
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2026 21:23:07 GMT ]]>

612 ABPZ20 KNHC 201741TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Odalys, located located over a thousand miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico have changed little in organization since earlier today.  However, environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and an increase in the organization of the system could result in it becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next day or so.  The system is expected to move eastward off the coast of southern Mexico on Monday, but could begin moving toward the coast by lateTuesday.  Interests along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For more information, including gale warnings, see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E):Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, remain limited. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system by the middle to latter portion of this week as the system moves westward to west-southwestward, and a tropical depression could form to the south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands once the environment becomes more favorable.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.&&Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odalys are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.Forecast Advisories on Tropical Storm Odalys are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Servicecan be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php$$Forecaster Katz/Pasch

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Odalys (EP1/EP162026)
  ...ODALYS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 20 the center of Odalys was located near 11.7, -126.6 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Odalys

• Tropical Storm Odalys Public Advisory Number 3
  Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 202047 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026 ...ODALYS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 126.6W ABOUT 1345 MI...2160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 126.6 West. Odalys is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn to the northwest is expected later today followed by a turn to the east on Tuesday. A gradual turn toward the east-northeast is expected by the middle part of the week followed by a turn toward the northeast by the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Odalys is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch]]>
• Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 3
  Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 202047 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 126.6W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 45SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 126.6W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 126.2W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.8N 127.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.8N 129.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.0N 129.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.0N 128.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.1N 127.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N 126.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 124.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 126.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH]]>
• Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 3
  Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 202048 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Odalys continues to gradually become better organized, with very deep convection near and over the center, and some banding features evident over the southern semicircle. Upper-level outflow remains somewhat restricted over the northern quadrant of the circulation, however. This implies some northerly vertical wind shear over the storm. The estimated current intensity is increased to 45 kt based on objective and subjective Dvorak estimates and observations from a scatterometer overpass. The tropical cyclone is expected to be in an environment of low to moderate shear, over very warm waters, and within a moist low- to mid-level air mass for the next couple of days. Therefore continued strengthening is forecast for the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, somewhat drier air and the possible inhibiting influence of a developing tropical cyclone to the east could limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. Odalys should move generally northwestward through tonight, on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. In 24-48 hours, a 500 mb trough moving into California and Baja California should cause the system to turn eastward. Later in the forecast period, as the trough lifts out, Odalys is likely to move northeastward on the northwestern side of a mid-level ridge. The developing tropical cyclone to the east could also have some influence on the track in 3-5 days, although there is considerable uncertainty about this. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 11.7N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 12.8N 127.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 14.0N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 14.8N 129.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 15.0N 129.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 15.0N 128.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 15.1N 127.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 15.9N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 17.5N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch]]>
• Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
  Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 202047 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 38(47) 7(54) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 15N 130W 34 X 6( 6) 43(49) 14(63) 6(69) X(69) X(69) 15N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 12(32) 6(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER PASCH]]>
• Tropical Storm Odalys Graphics
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2026 21:29:00 GMT ]]>

Tropical Depression Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Depression Seventeen-E (EP2/EP172026)
  ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Sun Sep 20 the center of Seventeen-E was located near 14.9, -104.9 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E

• Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
  Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 615 WTPZ22 KNHC 202056 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 104.9W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 104.9W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 105.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N 104.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.3N 103.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.2N 102.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.1N 102.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.5N 102.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.4N 103.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 18.1N 104.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 19.3N 107.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 104.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH]]>
• Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
  Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Sep 20 2026 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 202058 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 300 PM CST Sun Sep 20 2026 The tropical disturbance to the south of Mexico, formerly Invest 99E, has become better organized with some convective banding features over its eastern semicircle. Although a recent scatterometer pass missed the circulation, low cloud motions indicate that the system now has enough of a low-level circulation to qualify as a tropical depression with an initial intensity of 30 kt this advisory. The center has been difficult to track so far so the initial motion is a rather uncertain 030/7 kt. According to the majority of the track guidance, the system is likely to turn eastward within the next 12 to 24 hours. This motion is apparently due to the system being embedded within a broader cyclonic gyre near the southern coast of Mexico. Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to turn toward the northwest and move on the southern side of a mid-level high. The official forecast is near the northern side of the track guidance model envelope. The depression should be situated within an environment that is conducive for strengthening during the next few days, with very light vertical wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures. The official intensity forecast is near the model consensus and shows the system becoming a hurricane in 36 h. It should be noted that the Google DeepMind and HCCA guidance call for even faster strengthening than shown in this initial forecast. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression 17-E will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico this week. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. Tropical Depression 17-E is forecast to strengthen and move closer to the southwestern Mexican coast as a major hurricane later this week. Although it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of impacts associated with the system, interest in Mexico should closely monitor its progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 14.9N 104.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 15.2N 104.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 15.3N 103.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 15.2N 102.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 15.1N 102.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 15.5N 102.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 16.4N 103.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 18.1N 104.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 19.3N 107.4W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch]]>
• Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
  Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 619 FOPZ12 KNHC 202056 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 15N 105W 34 47 1(48) 1(49) X(49) 1(50) 1(51) 1(52) 15N 105W 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 9(35) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 47(53) 8(61) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 6(27) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 29(30) 15(45) 1(46) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 1(16) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 25(26) 6(32) 2(34) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) $$ FORECASTER PASCH]]>
• Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Graphics